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EPIC49 · BO3
result vs prediction
The Last Resort#140 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The Pigsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
45%50%
The Last Resort · 16 mapsedge The Pigs +5%The Pigs · 0 maps
InfernoThe Pigs pick
38%50%
The Last Resort · 12 mapsedge The Pigs +12%The Pigs · 0 maps
CacheThe Last Resort ban
43%50%
The Last Resort · 10 mapsedge The Pigs +7%The Pigs · 0 maps
NukeThe Last Resort pick
57%50%
The Last Resort · 10 mapsedge The Last Resort +7%The Pigs · 0 maps
AnubisThe Pigs ban
50%50%
The Last Resort · 8 mapsnearly even +0%The Pigs · 0 maps
Dust2The Last Resort ban
36%50%
The Last Resort · 7 mapsedge The Pigs +14%The Pigs · 0 maps
DefaultThe Pigs ban
67%50%
The Last Resort · 2 mapsedge The Last Resort +17%The Pigs · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Last Resort remove Dust2
2. BanThe Pigs remove Default
3. PickThe Last Resort take Nuke
4. PickThe Pigs take Inferno
5. BanThe Pigs remove Anubis
6. BanThe Last Resort remove Cache
DeciderAncient (45% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct8:13
The Last Resort 40%The Pigs 60%
The model gave 60% on The Pigs — the map was taken by The Pigs.
Infernoprediction missed13:6
The Last Resort 40%The Pigs 60%
The model gave 60% on The Pigs — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Nukeprediction correct13:3
The Last Resort 57%The Pigs 43%
The model gave 57% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Last Resort · 63%
Series resultThe Last Resort 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3