EPIC49 · BO3
result vs prediction
CTRL#206 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TPThe Pigswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheCTRL pick
60%50%
CTRL · 1 mapedge CTRL +10%The Pigs · 2 maps
NukeThe Pigs ban
40%40%
CTRL · 1 mapnearly even +0%The Pigs · 1 map
AnubisCTRL ban
60%50%
CTRL · 1 mapedge CTRL +10%The Pigs · 0 maps
Dust2CTRL ban
50%60%
CTRL · 0 mapsedge The Pigs +10%The Pigs · 1 map
InfernoThe Pigs ban
50%40%
CTRL · 0 mapsedge CTRL +10%The Pigs · 1 map
MirageThe Pigs pick
50%60%
CTRL · 0 mapsedge The Pigs +10%The Pigs · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanCTRL remove Dust2
2. BanThe Pigs remove Inferno
3. PickCTRL take Cache
4. PickThe Pigs take Mirage
5. BanThe Pigs remove Nuke
6. BanCTRL remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
CTRL 63%The Pigs 37%
The model gave 63% on CTRL — the map was taken by CTRL.
Ancientprediction correct5:13
CTRL 47%The Pigs 53%
The model gave 53% on The Pigs — the map was taken by The Pigs.
Nukeprediction missed16:19
CTRL 50%The Pigs 50%
The model gave 50% on CTRL — the map was taken by The Pigs.
Model check result
Model favoriteCTRL · 53%
Series resultThe Pigs 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3