?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Cup 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kinoaloss 0:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BIG Academy#215 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBIG Academy pick
50%67%
Kinoa · 0 mapsedge BIG Academy +17%BIG Academy · 5 maps
Dust2Kinoa ban
50%50%
Kinoa · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BIG Academy · 4 maps
OverpassKinoa ban
50%71%
Kinoa · 0 mapsedge BIG Academy +21%BIG Academy · 3 maps
AnubisBIG Academy ban
50%50%
Kinoa · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BIG Academy · 2 maps
InfernoBIG Academy ban
50%50%
Kinoa · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BIG Academy · 2 maps
MirageKinoa pick
50%50%
Kinoa · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BIG Academy · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKinoa remove Overpass
2. BanBIG Academy remove Inferno
3. PickKinoa take Mirage
4. PickBIG Academy take Ancient
5. BanBIG Academy remove Anubis
6. BanKinoa remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct8:13
Kinoa 26%BIG Academy 74%
The model gave 74% on BIG Academy — the map was taken by BIG Academy.
Dust2prediction missed12:16
Kinoa 53%BIG Academy 47%
The model gave 53% on Kinoa — the map was taken by BIG Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteBIG Academy · 66%
Series resultBIG Academy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2