NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
FOKUS#48 in the world · win 2:1series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Oxuji#173 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Oxuji ban
40%45%
FOKUS · 1 mapedge Oxuji +5%Oxuji · 7 maps
NukeOxuji pick
40%73%
FOKUS · 1 mapedge Oxuji +33%Oxuji · 7 maps
InfernoOxuji ban
60%25%
FOKUS · 1 mapedge FOKUS +35%Oxuji · 4 maps
DefaultFOKUS ban
50%75%
FOKUS · 0 mapsedge Oxuji +25%Oxuji · 4 maps
MirageFOKUS pick
60%57%
FOKUS · 1 mapnearly even +3%Oxuji · 3 maps
Ancientpossible decider
40%67%
FOKUS · 1 mapedge Oxuji +27%Oxuji · 2 maps
AnubisFOKUS ban
50%40%
FOKUS · 0 mapsedge FOKUS +10%Oxuji · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFOKUS remove Anubis
2. BanOxuji remove Inferno
3. PickFOKUS take Mirage
4. PickOxuji take Nuke
5. BanOxuji remove Dust2
6. BanFOKUS remove Default
DeciderAncient (40% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:2
FOKUS 84%Oxuji 16%
The model gave 84% on FOKUS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
FOKUS 18%Oxuji 82%
The model gave 82% on Oxuji — the map was taken by Oxuji.
Ancientprediction missed13:8
FOKUS 25%Oxuji 75%
The model gave 75% on Oxuji — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteFOKUS · 74%
Series resultFOKUS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3