BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Oramond#119 in the world · win 2:0series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
50%64%
Oramond · 0 mapsedge Lavked +14%Lavked · 18 maps
NukeOramond ban
40%61%
Oramond · 1 mapedge Lavked +21%Lavked · 14 maps
Dust2Oramond pick
50%44%
Oramond · 0 mapsedge Oramond +6%Lavked · 12 maps
AncientOramond ban
50%77%
Oramond · 0 mapsedge Lavked +27%Lavked · 9 maps
InfernoLavked ban
50%31%
Oramond · 0 mapsedge Oramond +19%Lavked · 9 maps
AnubisLavked ban
40%43%
Oramond · 1 mapnearly even -3%Lavked · 3 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%50%
Oramond · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Lavked · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOramond remove Ancient
2. BanLavked remove Anubis
3. PickOramond take Dust2
4. PickLavked take Mirage
5. BanLavked remove Inferno
6. BanOramond remove Nuke
DeciderOverpass (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
Oramond 34%Lavked 66%
The model gave 66% on Lavked — the map was taken by Oramond.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
Oramond 59%Lavked 41%
The model gave 59% on Oramond — the map was taken by Oramond.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 80%
Series resultOramond 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2