BC Game Masters Championship Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
INFINITE#71 in the world · win 13:11series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 13:11
HAVU#107 in the world · loss 11:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HAVU ban
50%30%
INFINITE · 2 mapsedge INFINITE +20%HAVU · 6 maps
MirageHAVU ban
75%43%
INFINITE · 4 mapsedge INFINITE +32%HAVU · 3 maps
Nukepossible decider
60%50%
INFINITE · 1 mapedge INFINITE +10%HAVU · 4 maps
DefaultINFINITE ban
50%67%
INFINITE · 0 mapsedge HAVU +17%HAVU · 2 maps
InfernoHAVU ban
40%40%
INFINITE · 1 mapnearly even +0%HAVU · 1 map
OverpassINFINITE ban
50%50%
INFINITE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%HAVU · 2 maps
AnubisINFINITE ban
60%50%
INFINITE · 1 mapedge INFINITE +10%HAVU · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINFINITE remove Overpass
2. BanHAVU remove Inferno
3. BanINFINITE remove Anubis
4. BanHAVU remove Mirage
5. BanINFINITE remove Default
6. BanHAVU remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
INFINITE 50%HAVU 50%
The model gave 50% on INFINITE — the map was taken by INFINITE.
Model check result
Model favoriteINFINITE · 60%
Series resultINFINITE 13:11
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1