BC Game Masters Championship Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Acend#125 in the world · loss 8:13series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 8:13
KOLESIE#117 in the world · win 13:8The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientKOLESIE ban
50%33%
Acend · 4 mapsedge Acend +17%KOLESIE · 2 maps
MirageKOLESIE ban
63%50%
Acend · 4 mapsedge Acend +13%KOLESIE · 0 maps
OverpassAcend ban
50%43%
Acend · 0 mapsedge Acend +7%KOLESIE · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%60%
Acend · 1 mapnearly even +0%KOLESIE · 1 map
Dust2Acend ban
40%40%
Acend · 1 mapnearly even +0%KOLESIE · 1 map
AnubisAcend ban
50%40%
Acend · 0 mapsedge Acend +10%KOLESIE · 1 map
InfernoKOLESIE ban
60%50%
Acend · 1 mapedge Acend +10%KOLESIE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAcend remove Anubis
2. BanKOLESIE remove Inferno
3. BanAcend remove Dust2
4. BanKOLESIE remove Mirage
5. BanAcend remove Overpass
6. BanKOLESIE remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction missed8:13
Acend 57%KOLESIE 43%
The model gave 57% on Acend — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcend · 57%
Series resultKOLESIE 8:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1