BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ursa#88 in the world · win 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ALGO#146 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ALGO ban
71%50%
Ursa · 10 mapsedge Ursa +21%ALGO · 0 maps
NukeUrsa ban
33%50%
Ursa · 8 mapsedge ALGO +17%ALGO · 2 maps
MirageALGO ban
50%40%
Ursa · 6 mapsedge Ursa +10%ALGO · 1 map
InfernoALGO pick
30%50%
Ursa · 6 mapsedge ALGO +20%ALGO · 0 maps
OverpassUrsa ban
43%33%
Ursa · 3 mapsedge Ursa +10%ALGO · 2 maps
Anubispossible decider
60%43%
Ursa · 1 mapedge Ursa +17%ALGO · 3 maps
DefaultUrsa pick
50%40%
Ursa · 0 mapsedge Ursa +10%ALGO · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUrsa remove Overpass
2. BanALGO remove Dust2
3. PickUrsa take Default
4. PickALGO take Inferno
5. BanALGO remove Mirage
6. BanUrsa remove Nuke
DeciderAnubis (60% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed11:13
Ursa 64%ALGO 36%
The model gave 64% on Ursa — the map was taken by ALGO.
Infernoprediction missed13:9
Ursa 33%ALGO 67%
The model gave 67% on ALGO — the map was taken by Ursa.
Nukeprediction missed13:2
Ursa 33%ALGO 67%
The model gave 67% on ALGO — the map was taken by Ursa.
Model check result
Model favoriteUrsa · 60%
Series resultUrsa 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3