NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
BET-M#62 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tricked#44 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoTricked pick
43%43%
BET-M · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Tricked · 3 maps
MirageBET-M pick
57%57%
BET-M · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Tricked · 3 maps
NukeBET-M ban
43%57%
BET-M · 3 mapsedge Tricked +14%Tricked · 3 maps
AncientTricked ban
33%50%
BET-M · 5 mapsedge Tricked +17%Tricked · 0 maps
OverpassBET-M ban
50%50%
BET-M · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Tricked · 4 maps
Dust2Tricked ban
50%50%
BET-M · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Tricked · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBET-M remove Overpass
2. BanTricked remove Dust2
3. PickBET-M take Mirage
4. PickTricked take Inferno
5. BanTricked remove Ancient
6. BanBET-M remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct3:13
BET-M 47%Tricked 53%
The model gave 53% on Tricked — the map was taken by Tricked.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
BET-M 53%Tricked 47%
The model gave 53% on BET-M — the map was taken by Tricked.
Model check result
Model favoriteTricked · 63%
Series resultTricked 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2