BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ursa#88 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PsychoFace pick
44%71%
PsychoFace · 5 mapsedge Ursa +27%Ursa · 10 maps
Nukepossible decider
40%38%
PsychoFace · 1 mapnearly even +2%Ursa · 9 maps
MiragePsychoFace ban
50%50%
PsychoFace · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Ursa · 6 maps
InfernoPsychoFace ban
50%36%
PsychoFace · 0 mapsedge PsychoFace +14%Ursa · 7 maps
AnubisUrsa ban
50%50%
PsychoFace · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Ursa · 2 maps
OverpassUrsa ban
67%43%
PsychoFace · 2 mapsedge PsychoFace +24%Ursa · 3 maps
DefaultUrsa pick
50%50%
PsychoFace · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Ursa · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPsychoFace remove Inferno
2. BanUrsa remove Overpass
3. PickPsychoFace take Dust2
4. PickUrsa take Default
5. BanUrsa remove Anubis
6. BanPsychoFace remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (40% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
PsychoFace 22%Ursa 78%
The model gave 78% on Ursa — the map was taken by PsychoFace.
Overpassprediction correct13:11
PsychoFace 75%Ursa 25%
The model gave 75% on PsychoFace — the map was taken by PsychoFace.
Model check result
Model favoriteUrsa · 58%
Series resultPsychoFace 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2