ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 3 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Lazer Cats#117 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Lazer Cats ban
46%23%
ex-MANA · 20 mapsedge ex-MANA +23%Lazer Cats · 9 maps
AncientLazer Cats pick
50%59%
ex-MANA · 10 mapsedge Lazer Cats +9%Lazer Cats · 13 maps
Mirageex-MANA pick
62%44%
ex-MANA · 9 mapsedge ex-MANA +18%Lazer Cats · 5 maps
Infernoex-MANA ban
29%64%
ex-MANA · 3 mapsedge Lazer Cats +35%Lazer Cats · 7 maps
Nukeex-MANA ban
30%50%
ex-MANA · 6 mapsedge Lazer Cats +20%Lazer Cats · 4 maps
AnubisLazer Cats ban
38%43%
ex-MANA · 4 mapsedge Lazer Cats +5%Lazer Cats · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%67%
ex-MANA · 1 mapedge Lazer Cats +27%Lazer Cats · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-MANA remove Nuke
2. BanLazer Cats remove Dust2
3. Pickex-MANA take Mirage
4. PickLazer Cats take Ancient
5. BanLazer Cats remove Anubis
6. Banex-MANA remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (40% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:4
ex-MANA 20%Lazer Cats 80%
The model gave 80% on Lazer Cats — the map was taken by ex-MANA.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
ex-MANA 38%Lazer Cats 62%
The model gave 62% on Lazer Cats — the map was taken by Lazer Cats.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
ex-MANA 67%Lazer Cats 33%
The model gave 67% on ex-MANA — the map was taken by ex-MANA.
Model check result
Model favoriteLazer Cats · 55%
Series resultex-MANA 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3