ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Leo#89 in the world · win 2:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
benched gods#162 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Leo pick
62%50%
Leo · 22 mapsedge Leo +12%benched gods · 4 maps
Anubispossible decider
33%33%
Leo · 14 mapsnearly even +0%benched gods · 5 maps
Ancientbenched gods ban
56%40%
Leo · 12 mapsedge Leo +16%benched gods · 6 maps
Nukebenched gods ban
57%50%
Leo · 10 mapsedge Leo +7%benched gods · 0 maps
MirageLeo ban
44%43%
Leo · 5 mapsnearly even +1%benched gods · 3 maps
Cachebenched gods pick
40%70%
Leo · 1 mapedge benched gods +30%benched gods · 6 maps
InfernoLeo ban
60%57%
Leo · 1 mapnearly even +3%benched gods · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLeo remove Mirage
2. Banbenched gods remove Nuke
3. PickLeo take Dust2
4. Pickbenched gods take Cache
5. Banbenched gods remove Ancient
6. BanLeo remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (33% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:3
Leo 20%benched gods 80%
The model gave 80% on benched gods — the map was taken by Leo.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
Leo 68%benched gods 32%
The model gave 68% on Leo — the map was taken by benched gods.
Anubisprediction correct13:10
Leo 50%benched gods 50%
The model gave 50% on Leo — the map was taken by Leo.
Model check result
Model favoriteLeo · 57%
Series resultLeo 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3