ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
OG#203 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BAKS#112 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2OG pick
70%50%
OG · 6 mapsedge OG +20%BAKS · 6 maps
NukeOG ban
44%50%
OG · 5 mapsedge BAKS +6%BAKS · 4 maps
Infernopossible decider
57%56%
OG · 3 mapsnearly even +1%BAKS · 5 maps
CacheBAKS pick
29%75%
OG · 3 mapsedge BAKS +46%BAKS · 4 maps
MirageBAKS ban
50%43%
OG · 4 mapsedge OG +7%BAKS · 3 maps
OverpassBAKS ban
60%40%
OG · 6 mapsedge OG +20%BAKS · 1 map
AncientOG ban
57%71%
OG · 3 mapsedge BAKS +14%BAKS · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOG remove Ancient
2. BanBAKS remove Mirage
3. PickOG take Dust2
4. PickBAKS take Cache
5. BanBAKS remove Overpass
6. BanOG remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (57% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed6:13
OG 54%BAKS 46%
The model gave 54% on OG — the map was taken by BAKS.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
OG 55%BAKS 45%
The model gave 55% on OG — the map was taken by BAKS.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 57%
Series resultBAKS 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2