NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#37 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNuclear TigeRES pick
50%63%
100 Thieves · 4 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +13%Nuclear TigeRES · 4 maps
Anubis100 Thieves ban
60%56%
100 Thieves · 1 mapnearly even +4%Nuclear TigeRES · 5 maps
Inferno100 Thieves pick
50%67%
100 Thieves · 4 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +17%Nuclear TigeRES · 2 maps
NukeNuclear TigeRES ban
50%33%
100 Thieves · 4 mapsedge 100 Thieves +17%Nuclear TigeRES · 2 maps
Miragepossible decider
71%67%
100 Thieves · 3 mapsnearly even +4%Nuclear TigeRES · 2 maps
Dust2100 Thieves ban
60%57%
100 Thieves · 1 mapnearly even +3%Nuclear TigeRES · 3 maps
OverpassNuclear TigeRES ban
60%50%
100 Thieves · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +10%Nuclear TigeRES · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Dust2
2. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Overpass
3. Pick100 Thieves take Inferno
4. PickNuclear TigeRES take Ancient
5. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Nuke
6. Ban100 Thieves remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (71% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
100 Thieves 35%Nuclear TigeRES 65%
The model gave 65% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Nukeprediction missed10:13
100 Thieves 69%Nuclear TigeRES 31%
The model gave 69% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Mirageprediction missed17:19
100 Thieves 56%Nuclear TigeRES 44%
The model gave 56% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favorite100 Thieves · 55%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3