ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Privateer#226 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fire Flux#103 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Fire Flux pick
33%50%
Privateer · 5 mapsedge Fire Flux +17%Fire Flux · 8 maps
NukeFire Flux ban
45%67%
Privateer · 7 mapsedge Fire Flux +22%Fire Flux · 2 maps
AncientFire Flux ban
44%57%
Privateer · 5 mapsedge Fire Flux +13%Fire Flux · 3 maps
Miragepossible decider
43%50%
Privateer · 3 mapsedge Fire Flux +7%Fire Flux · 4 maps
AnubisPrivateer ban
50%70%
Privateer · 0 mapsedge Fire Flux +20%Fire Flux · 6 maps
CachePrivateer ban
40%38%
Privateer · 1 mapnearly even +2%Fire Flux · 4 maps
InfernoPrivateer pick
67%50%
Privateer · 2 mapsedge Privateer +17%Fire Flux · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPrivateer remove Anubis
2. BanFire Flux remove Nuke
3. PickPrivateer take Inferno
4. PickFire Flux take Dust2
5. BanFire Flux remove Ancient
6. BanPrivateer remove Cache
DeciderMirage (43% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct5:13
Privateer 27%Fire Flux 73%
The model gave 73% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
Privateer 36%Fire Flux 64%
The model gave 64% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Model check result
Model favoritePrivateer · 51%
Series resultFire Flux 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2