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BetBoom Storm Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bounty Hunters#74 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yawara#156 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
53%67%
Bounty Hunters · 11 mapsedge Yawara +14%Yawara · 8 maps
MirageYawara pick
58%70%
Bounty Hunters · 8 mapsedge Yawara +12%Yawara · 6 maps
AncientBounty Hunters pick
62%33%
Bounty Hunters · 9 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +29%Yawara · 2 maps
NukeYawara ban
75%50%
Bounty Hunters · 8 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +25%Yawara · 0 maps
AnubisBounty Hunters ban
38%43%
Bounty Hunters · 4 mapsedge Yawara +5%Yawara · 3 maps
InfernoBounty Hunters ban
50%50%
Bounty Hunters · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Yawara · 6 maps
OverpassYawara ban
40%60%
Bounty Hunters · 1 mapedge Yawara +20%Yawara · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBounty Hunters remove Inferno
2. BanYawara remove Nuke
3. PickBounty Hunters take Ancient
4. PickYawara take Mirage
5. BanYawara remove Overpass
6. BanBounty Hunters remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (53% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct3:13
Bounty Hunters 34%Yawara 66%
The model gave 66% on Yawara — the map was taken by Yawara.
Ancientprediction correct13:1
Bounty Hunters 78%Yawara 22%
The model gave 78% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Mirageprediction missed13:6
Bounty Hunters 38%Yawara 62%
The model gave 62% on Yawara — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Model check result
Model favoriteBounty Hunters · 69%
Series resultBounty Hunters 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3