Parken Challenger Championship Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
PURE#179 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Honvéd#124 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageHonvéd pick
50%50%
PURE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Honvéd · 2 maps
AncientHonvéd ban
60%50%
PURE · 1 mapedge PURE +10%Honvéd · 0 maps
AnubisHonvéd ban
40%50%
PURE · 1 mapedge Honvéd +10%Honvéd · 0 maps
Dust2PURE ban
50%60%
PURE · 0 mapsedge Honvéd +10%Honvéd · 1 map
NukePURE pick
40%50%
PURE · 1 mapedge Honvéd +10%Honvéd · 0 maps
OverpassPURE ban
50%40%
PURE · 0 mapsedge PURE +10%Honvéd · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPURE remove Overpass
2. BanHonvéd remove Anubis
3. PickPURE take Nuke
4. PickHonvéd take Mirage
5. BanHonvéd remove Ancient
6. BanPURE remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct3:13
PURE 43%Honvéd 57%
The model gave 57% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Mirageprediction missed13:6
PURE 47%Honvéd 53%
The model gave 53% on Honvéd — the map was taken by PURE.
Dust2prediction correct14:16
PURE 40%Honvéd 60%
The model gave 60% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Model check result
Model favoriteHonvéd · 61%
Series resultHonvéd 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3