ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fire Flux#103 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OG#203 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Fire Flux pick
54%70%
Fire Flux · 9 mapsedge OG +16%OG · 6 maps
MirageOG ban
50%44%
Fire Flux · 4 mapsedge Fire Flux +6%OG · 5 maps
NukeFire Flux ban
63%44%
Fire Flux · 4 mapsedge Fire Flux +19%OG · 5 maps
AnubisOG ban
64%50%
Fire Flux · 7 mapsedge Fire Flux +14%OG · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
38%29%
Fire Flux · 4 mapsedge Fire Flux +9%OG · 3 maps
AncientFire Flux ban
57%57%
Fire Flux · 3 mapsnearly even +0%OG · 3 maps
InfernoOG pick
50%50%
Fire Flux · 2 mapsnearly even +0%OG · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFire Flux remove Ancient
2. BanOG remove Anubis
3. PickFire Flux take Dust2
4. PickOG take Inferno
5. BanOG remove Mirage
6. BanFire Flux remove Nuke
DeciderCache (38% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
Fire Flux 36%OG 64%
The model gave 64% on OG — the map was taken by OG.
Infernoprediction missed13:7
Fire Flux 47%OG 53%
The model gave 53% on OG — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Mirageprediction missed5:13
Fire Flux 56%OG 44%
The model gave 56% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by OG.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 71%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3