ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
EAC#76 in the world · win 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
39%47%
EAC · 14 mapsedge ex-MANA +8%ex-MANA · 11 maps
Mirageex-MANA pick
56%63%
EAC · 12 mapsedge ex-MANA +7%ex-MANA · 12 maps
Dust2EAC ban
40%48%
EAC · 1 mapedge ex-MANA +8%ex-MANA · 21 map
Nukeex-MANA ban
41%30%
EAC · 13 mapsedge EAC +11%ex-MANA · 6 maps
AnubisEAC pick
55%33%
EAC · 7 mapsedge EAC +22%ex-MANA · 5 maps
Cacheex-MANA ban
62%43%
EAC · 9 mapsedge EAC +19%ex-MANA · 3 maps
InfernoEAC ban
20%38%
EAC · 6 mapsedge ex-MANA +18%ex-MANA · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEAC remove Dust2
2. Banex-MANA remove Cache
3. PickEAC take Anubis
4. Pickex-MANA take Mirage
5. Banex-MANA remove Nuke
6. BanEAC remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (39% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
EAC 41%ex-MANA 59%
The model gave 59% on ex-MANA — the map was taken by EAC.
Anubisprediction missed8:13
EAC 73%ex-MANA 27%
The model gave 73% on EAC — the map was taken by ex-MANA.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
EAC 42%ex-MANA 58%
The model gave 58% on ex-MANA — the map was taken by EAC.
Model check result
Model favoriteEAC · 67%
Series resultEAC 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3