ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 3 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OG#203 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
43%50%
Lavked · 24 mapsedge OG +7%OG · 6 maps
Dust2OG pick
41%73%
Lavked · 13 mapsedge OG +32%OG · 7 maps
Nukepossible decider
38%44%
Lavked · 9 mapsedge OG +6%OG · 5 maps
AnubisOG ban
60%50%
Lavked · 11 mapsedge Lavked +10%OG · 0 maps
AncientOG ban
55%57%
Lavked · 7 mapsnearly even -2%OG · 3 maps
OverpassLavked ban
43%60%
Lavked · 3 mapsedge OG +17%OG · 6 maps
InfernoLavked ban
60%44%
Lavked · 1 mapedge Lavked +16%OG · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Inferno
2. BanOG remove Anubis
3. PickLavked take Mirage
4. PickOG take Dust2
5. BanOG remove Ancient
6. BanLavked remove Overpass
DeciderNuke (38% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
Lavked 50%OG 50%
The model gave 50% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
Lavked 19%OG 81%
The model gave 81% on OG — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 72%
Series resultLavked 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2