NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
TDK#86 in the world · win 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
43%67%
TDK · 3 mapsedge Lavked +24%Lavked · 17 maps
Dust2possible decider
70%44%
TDK · 6 mapsedge TDK +26%Lavked · 12 maps
NukeTDK ban
50%61%
TDK · 0 mapsedge Lavked +11%Lavked · 14 maps
AncientTDK ban
57%77%
TDK · 3 mapsedge Lavked +20%Lavked · 9 maps
InfernoLavked ban
33%31%
TDK · 2 mapsnearly even +2%Lavked · 9 maps
AnubisLavked ban
50%43%
TDK · 2 mapsedge TDK +7%Lavked · 3 maps
OverpassTDK pick
63%60%
TDK · 4 mapsnearly even +3%Lavked · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTDK remove Nuke
2. BanLavked remove Anubis
3. PickTDK take Overpass
4. PickLavked take Mirage
5. BanLavked remove Inferno
6. BanTDK remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (70% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:5
TDK 25%Lavked 75%
The model gave 75% on Lavked — the map was taken by TDK.
Overpassprediction correct13:7
TDK 56%Lavked 44%
The model gave 56% on TDK — the map was taken by TDK.
Model check result
Model favoriteTDK · 51%
Series resultTDK 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2