Parken Challenger Championship Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#81 in the world · win 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MASONIC#219 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeMASONIC pick
60%60%
BASEMENT BOYS · 1 mapnearly even +0%MASONIC · 1 map
AncientBASEMENT BOYS pick
50%40%
BASEMENT BOYS · 0 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%MASONIC · 1 map
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS ban
50%60%
BASEMENT BOYS · 0 mapsedge MASONIC +10%MASONIC · 1 map
DefaultMASONIC ban
50%40%
BASEMENT BOYS · 0 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%MASONIC · 1 map
Dust2MASONIC ban
60%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 1 mapedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%MASONIC · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Anubis
2. BanMASONIC remove Dust2
3. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Ancient
4. PickMASONIC take Nuke
5. BanMASONIC remove Default
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
BASEMENT BOYS 63%MASONIC 37%
The model gave 63% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Infernoprediction missed13:4
BASEMENT BOYS 47%MASONIC 53%
The model gave 53% on MASONIC — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 64%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2