CCT 2026 Contenders Europe Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Atreides#147 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
DONSTU#221 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageDONSTU ban
75%50%
Atreides · 4 mapsedge Atreides +25%DONSTU · 0 maps
OverpassDONSTU pick
50%50%
Atreides · 4 mapsnearly even +0%DONSTU · 0 maps
AncientAtreides pick
67%50%
Atreides · 2 mapsedge Atreides +17%DONSTU · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
40%40%
Atreides · 1 mapnearly even +0%DONSTU · 1 map
InfernoAtreides ban
40%40%
Atreides · 1 mapnearly even +0%DONSTU · 1 map
AnubisAtreides ban
50%60%
Atreides · 0 mapsedge DONSTU +10%DONSTU · 1 map
DefaultDONSTU ban
60%50%
Atreides · 1 mapedge Atreides +10%DONSTU · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAtreides remove Anubis
2. BanDONSTU remove Mirage
3. PickAtreides take Ancient
4. PickDONSTU take Overpass
5. BanDONSTU remove Default
6. BanAtreides remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (40% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
Atreides 47%DONSTU 53%
The model gave 53% on DONSTU — the map was taken by DONSTU.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
Atreides 53%DONSTU 47%
The model gave 53% on Atreides — the map was taken by Atreides.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
Atreides 67%DONSTU 33%
The model gave 67% on Atreides — the map was taken by DONSTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteAtreides · 54%
Series resultDONSTU 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3