NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga#50 in the world · win 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TDK#82 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageNemiga ban
50%60%
Nemiga · 0 mapsedge TDK +10%TDK · 1 map
OverpassTDK ban
50%60%
Nemiga · 0 mapsedge TDK +10%TDK · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemiga remove Mirage
2. BanTDK remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
Nemiga 53%TDK 47%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
Nemiga 37%TDK 63%
The model gave 63% on TDK — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga · 61%
Series resultNemiga 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2