NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga#22 in the world · win 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TDK#86 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
OverpassNemiga pick
80%67%
Nemiga · 6 mapsedge Nemiga +13%TDK · 5 maps
Dust2TDK pick
63%70%
Nemiga · 4 mapsedge TDK +7%TDK · 6 maps
MirageNemiga ban
50%50%
Nemiga · 6 mapsnearly even +0%TDK · 4 maps
AncientTDK ban
60%57%
Nemiga · 6 mapsnearly even +3%TDK · 3 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%50%
Nemiga · 4 mapsnearly even +0%TDK · 2 maps
NukeTDK ban
56%50%
Nemiga · 5 mapsedge Nemiga +6%TDK · 0 maps
InfernoNemiga ban
50%33%
Nemiga · 0 mapsedge Nemiga +17%TDK · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemiga remove Inferno
2. BanTDK remove Nuke
3. PickNemiga take Overpass
4. PickTDK take Dust2
5. BanTDK remove Ancient
6. BanNemiga remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
Nemiga 56%TDK 44%
The model gave 56% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
Nemiga 47%TDK 53%
The model gave 53% on TDK — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga · 61%
Series resultNemiga 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2