?
arrow_backBack to match
Parken Challenger Championship Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
MASONIC#219 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Inner Circle Academy#119 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Inner Circle Academy ban
57%40%
MASONIC · 3 mapsedge MASONIC +17%Inner Circle Academy · 1 map
NukeMASONIC pick
67%67%
MASONIC · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Inner Circle Academy · 2 maps
OverpassInner Circle Academy pick
60%67%
MASONIC · 1 mapedge Inner Circle Academy +7%Inner Circle Academy · 2 maps
Ancientpossible decider
40%40%
MASONIC · 1 mapnearly even +0%Inner Circle Academy · 1 map
AnubisMASONIC ban
60%50%
MASONIC · 1 mapedge MASONIC +10%Inner Circle Academy · 0 maps
DefaultMASONIC ban
40%50%
MASONIC · 1 mapedge Inner Circle Academy +10%Inner Circle Academy · 0 maps
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
40%50%
MASONIC · 1 mapedge Inner Circle Academy +10%Inner Circle Academy · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMASONIC remove Anubis
2. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
3. PickMASONIC take Nuke
4. PickInner Circle Academy take Overpass
5. BanInner Circle Academy remove Dust2
6. BanMASONIC remove Default
DeciderAncient (40% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
MASONIC 53%Inner Circle Academy 47%
The model gave 53% on MASONIC — the map was taken by MASONIC.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
MASONIC 47%Inner Circle Academy 53%
The model gave 53% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Anubisprediction missed13:16
MASONIC 60%Inner Circle Academy 40%
The model gave 60% on MASONIC — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle Academy · 60%
Series resultInner Circle Academy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3