Parken Challenger Championship Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle Academy#154 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BASEMENT BOYS#81 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BASEMENT BOYS pick
50%67%
Inner Circle Academy · 0 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +17%BASEMENT BOYS · 2 maps
NukeBASEMENT BOYS ban
60%60%
Inner Circle Academy · 1 mapnearly even +0%BASEMENT BOYS · 1 map
OverpassBASEMENT BOYS ban
67%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 2 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +17%BASEMENT BOYS · 0 maps
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
50%60%
Inner Circle Academy · 0 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%BASEMENT BOYS · 1 map
MirageInner Circle Academy pick
60%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 1 mapedge Inner Circle Academy +10%BASEMENT BOYS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
2. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Overpass
3. PickInner Circle Academy take Mirage
4. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Dust2
5. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
Inner Circle Academy 53%BASEMENT BOYS 47%
The model gave 53% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Nukeprediction missed13:7
Inner Circle Academy 47%BASEMENT BOYS 53%
The model gave 53% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
Inner Circle Academy 33%BASEMENT BOYS 67%
The model gave 67% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 59%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3