Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
3DMAX#20 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
100 Thieves#32 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust23DMAX pick
55%69%
3DMAX · 7 mapsedge 100 Thieves +14%100 Thieves · 12 maps
Infernopossible decider
44%50%
3DMAX · 12 mapsedge 100 Thieves +6%100 Thieves · 6 maps
Nuke100 Thieves pick
42%50%
3DMAX · 8 mapsedge 100 Thieves +8%100 Thieves · 10 maps
Ancient3DMAX ban
58%45%
3DMAX · 8 mapsedge 3DMAX +13%100 Thieves · 7 maps
Cache100 Thieves ban
56%50%
3DMAX · 12 mapsedge 3DMAX +6%100 Thieves · 0 maps
Anubis100 Thieves ban
43%45%
3DMAX · 3 mapsnearly even -2%100 Thieves · 7 maps
Mirage3DMAX ban
50%63%
3DMAX · 0 mapsedge 100 Thieves +13%100 Thieves · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban3DMAX remove Mirage
2. Ban100 Thieves remove Cache
3. Pick3DMAX take Dust2
4. Pick100 Thieves take Nuke
5. Ban100 Thieves remove Anubis
6. Ban3DMAX remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (44% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
3DMAX 65%100 Thieves 35%
The model gave 65% on 3DMAX — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Dust2prediction correct7:13
3DMAX 33%100 Thieves 67%
The model gave 67% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Model check result
Model favorite3DMAX · 60%
Series result100 Thieves 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2