Stake Ranked Episode 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
3DMAX#20 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Alliance#22 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Inferno3DMAX ban
40%63%
3DMAX · 1 mapedge Alliance +23%Alliance · 4 maps
NukeAlliance ban
50%44%
3DMAX · 0 mapsedge 3DMAX +6%Alliance · 5 maps
AncientAlliance ban
40%43%
3DMAX · 1 mapnearly even -3%Alliance · 3 maps
AnubisAlliance pick
40%33%
3DMAX · 1 mapedge 3DMAX +7%Alliance · 2 maps
Dust23DMAX pick
50%57%
3DMAX · 0 mapsedge Alliance +7%Alliance · 3 maps
Overpass3DMAX ban
50%40%
3DMAX · 0 mapsedge 3DMAX +10%Alliance · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban3DMAX remove Inferno
2. BanAlliance remove Nuke
3. Pick3DMAX take Dust2
4. PickAlliance take Anubis
5. BanAlliance remove Ancient
6. Ban3DMAX remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct17:19
3DMAX 26%Alliance 74%
The model gave 74% on Alliance — the map was taken by Alliance.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
3DMAX 46%Alliance 54%
The model gave 54% on Alliance — the map was taken by 3DMAX.
Anubisprediction missed8:13
3DMAX 57%Alliance 43%
The model gave 57% on 3DMAX — the map was taken by Alliance.
Model check result
Model favorite3DMAX · 58%
Series resultAlliance 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3