NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
3DMAX#20 in the world · win 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
INFINITE#71 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Mirage3DMAX ban
50%53%
3DMAX · 0 mapsnearly even -3%INFINITE · 15 maps
NukeINFINITE ban
30%46%
3DMAX · 6 mapsedge INFINITE +16%INFINITE · 9 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%50%
3DMAX · 6 mapsnearly even +0%INFINITE · 8 maps
InfernoINFINITE ban
43%50%
3DMAX · 10 mapsedge INFINITE +7%INFINITE · 4 maps
Ancient3DMAX ban
55%50%
3DMAX · 7 mapsedge 3DMAX +5%INFINITE · 6 maps
Cache3DMAX pick
54%50%
3DMAX · 9 mapsnearly even +4%INFINITE · 2 maps
DefaultINFINITE pick
50%75%
3DMAX · 0 mapsedge INFINITE +25%INFINITE · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban3DMAX remove Mirage
2. BanINFINITE remove Nuke
3. Pick3DMAX take Cache
4. PickINFINITE take Default
5. BanINFINITE remove Inferno
6. Ban3DMAX remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:7
3DMAX 31%INFINITE 69%
The model gave 69% on INFINITE — the map was taken by 3DMAX.
Cacheprediction correct19:16
3DMAX 57%INFINITE 43%
The model gave 57% on 3DMAX — the map was taken by 3DMAX.
Model check result
Model favorite3DMAX · 74%
Series result3DMAX 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2