IEM Beijing 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
3DMAX#20 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MIBR#28 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Inferno3DMAX ban
38%55%
3DMAX · 9 mapsedge MIBR +17%MIBR · 7 maps
AncientMIBR ban
55%30%
3DMAX · 7 mapsedge 3DMAX +25%MIBR · 6 maps
NukeMIBR pick
25%62%
3DMAX · 4 mapsedge MIBR +37%MIBR · 9 maps
Cache3DMAX pick
58%67%
3DMAX · 8 mapsedge MIBR +9%MIBR · 2 maps
Mirage3DMAX ban
50%54%
3DMAX · 0 mapsnearly even -4%MIBR · 9 maps
Dust2MIBR ban
50%50%
3DMAX · 6 mapsnearly even +0%MIBR · 0 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%67%
3DMAX · 2 mapsedge MIBR +17%MIBR · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban3DMAX remove Mirage
2. BanMIBR remove Dust2
3. Pick3DMAX take Cache
4. PickMIBR take Nuke
5. BanMIBR remove Ancient
6. Ban3DMAX remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct8:13
3DMAX 44%MIBR 56%
The model gave 56% on MIBR — the map was taken by MIBR.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
3DMAX 16%MIBR 84%
The model gave 84% on MIBR — the map was taken by MIBR.
Model check result
Model favoriteMIBR · 55%
Series resultMIBR 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2