BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
3DMAX#20 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZ#3 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Inferno3DMAX ban
36%55%
3DMAX · 7 mapsedge MOUZ +19%MOUZ · 7 maps
NukeMOUZ pick
29%67%
3DMAX · 3 mapsedge MOUZ +38%MOUZ · 11 maps
AncientMOUZ ban
50%55%
3DMAX · 6 mapsedge MOUZ +5%MOUZ · 7 maps
Dust23DMAX pick
63%64%
3DMAX · 4 mapsnearly even -1%MOUZ · 7 maps
Mirage3DMAX ban
50%62%
3DMAX · 0 mapsedge MOUZ +12%MOUZ · 9 maps
CacheMOUZ ban
55%50%
3DMAX · 7 mapsedge 3DMAX +5%MOUZ · 0 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%67%
3DMAX · 0 mapsedge MOUZ +17%MOUZ · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban3DMAX remove Mirage
2. BanMOUZ remove Cache
3. Pick3DMAX take Dust2
4. PickMOUZ take Nuke
5. BanMOUZ remove Ancient
6. Ban3DMAX remove Inferno
DeciderOverpass (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
3DMAX 52%MOUZ 48%
The model gave 52% on 3DMAX — the map was taken by 3DMAX.
Nukeprediction correct18:22
3DMAX 15%MOUZ 85%
The model gave 85% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Infernoprediction correct3:13
3DMAX 32%MOUZ 68%
The model gave 68% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 67%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3