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CCT 2026 Europe Series 2 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
MANA#86 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Falcons Force#152 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMANA pick
44%50%
MANA · 5 mapsedge Falcons Force +6%Falcons Force · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
43%40%
MANA · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Falcons Force · 1 map
AncientFalcons Force pick
40%33%
MANA · 1 mapedge MANA +7%Falcons Force · 2 maps
AnubisFalcons Force ban
57%50%
MANA · 3 mapsedge MANA +7%Falcons Force · 0 maps
InfernoFalcons Force ban
50%50%
MANA · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Falcons Force · 0 maps
NukeMANA ban
60%40%
MANA · 1 mapedge MANA +20%Falcons Force · 1 map
OverpassMANA ban
40%50%
MANA · 1 mapedge Falcons Force +10%Falcons Force · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMANA remove Overpass
2. BanFalcons Force remove Anubis
3. PickMANA take Mirage
4. PickFalcons Force take Ancient
5. BanFalcons Force remove Inferno
6. BanMANA remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (43% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
MANA 56%Falcons Force 44%
The model gave 56% on MANA — the map was taken by MANA.
Ancientprediction missed4:13
MANA 54%Falcons Force 46%
The model gave 54% on MANA — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
MANA 44%Falcons Force 56%
The model gave 56% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons Force · 56%
Series resultFalcons Force 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3