NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Sashi#94 in the world · win 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Oxuji#173 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Oxuji ban
33%40%
Sashi · 2 mapsedge Oxuji +7%Oxuji · 6 maps
NukeOxuji pick
50%80%
Sashi · 2 mapsedge Oxuji +30%Oxuji · 6 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%75%
Sashi · 0 mapsedge Oxuji +25%Oxuji · 4 maps
InfernoSashi pick
67%33%
Sashi · 2 mapsedge Sashi +34%Oxuji · 2 maps
AncientSashi ban
50%67%
Sashi · 0 mapsedge Oxuji +17%Oxuji · 2 maps
MirageSashi ban
50%50%
Sashi · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Oxuji · 2 maps
AnubisOxuji ban
50%40%
Sashi · 0 mapsedge Sashi +10%Oxuji · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSashi remove Mirage
2. BanOxuji remove Anubis
3. PickSashi take Inferno
4. PickOxuji take Nuke
5. BanOxuji remove Dust2
6. BanSashi remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (50% / 75%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:6
Sashi 18%Oxuji 82%
The model gave 82% on Oxuji — the map was taken by Sashi.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
Sashi 82%Oxuji 18%
The model gave 82% on Sashi — the map was taken by Sashi.
Model check result
Model favoriteSashi · 80%
Series resultSashi 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2