BetBoom Storm Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
LP#107 in the world · win 2:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Isurus#186 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Isurus pick
58%50%
LP · 8 mapsedge LP +8%Isurus · 8 maps
InfernoLP pick
63%57%
LP · 4 mapsedge LP +6%Isurus · 3 maps
Nukepossible decider
63%57%
LP · 4 mapsedge LP +6%Isurus · 3 maps
AncientIsurus ban
43%43%
LP · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Isurus · 3 maps
MirageLP ban
60%63%
LP · 1 mapnearly even -3%Isurus · 4 maps
OverpassIsurus ban
50%50%
LP · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Isurus · 2 maps
DefaultLP ban
50%67%
LP · 0 mapsedge Isurus +17%Isurus · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLP remove Mirage
2. BanIsurus remove Ancient
3. PickLP take Inferno
4. PickIsurus take Dust2
5. BanIsurus remove Overpass
6. BanLP remove Default
DeciderNuke (63% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
LP 55%Isurus 45%
The model gave 55% on LP — the map was taken by Isurus.
Infernoprediction correct13:8
LP 58%Isurus 42%
The model gave 58% on LP — the map was taken by LP.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
LP 50%Isurus 50%
The model gave 50% on LP — the map was taken by LP.
Model check result
Model favoriteLP · 70%
Series resultLP 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3