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Exort Fiesta Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Subtop De Franceloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Vexar#141 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientVexar pick
25%35%
Subtop De France · 4 mapsedge Vexar +10%Vexar · 13 maps
Defaultpossible decider
30%60%
Subtop De France · 6 mapsedge Vexar +30%Vexar · 6 maps
Dust2Subtop De France ban
30%63%
Subtop De France · 6 mapsedge Vexar +33%Vexar · 4 maps
InfernoSubtop De France pick
44%56%
Subtop De France · 5 mapsedge Vexar +12%Vexar · 5 maps
NukeVexar ban
43%38%
Subtop De France · 3 mapsedge Subtop De France +5%Vexar · 4 maps
MirageSubtop De France ban
50%40%
Subtop De France · 0 mapsedge Subtop De France +10%Vexar · 6 maps
AnubisVexar ban
60%38%
Subtop De France · 1 mapedge Subtop De France +22%Vexar · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSubtop De France remove Mirage
2. BanVexar remove Anubis
3. PickSubtop De France take Inferno
4. PickVexar take Ancient
5. BanVexar remove Nuke
6. BanSubtop De France remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (30% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed1:0
Subtop De France 22%Vexar 78%
The model gave 78% on Vexar — the map was taken by Subtop De France.
Nukeprediction missed3:13
Subtop De France 53%Vexar 47%
The model gave 53% on Subtop De France — the map was taken by Vexar.
Infernoprediction correct5:13
Subtop De France 39%Vexar 61%
The model gave 61% on Vexar — the map was taken by Vexar.
Model check result
Model favoriteVexar · 50%
Series resultVexar 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3