CCT 2026 South America Series 5 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoPugdesonesto pick
33%40%
Pugdesonesto · 2 mapsedge Sementes do Mal +7%Sementes do Mal · 1 map
AncientSementes do Mal ban
50%50%
Pugdesonesto · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Sementes do Mal · 0 maps
CacheSementes do Mal pick
40%40%
Pugdesonesto · 1 mapnearly even +0%Sementes do Mal · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
40%40%
Pugdesonesto · 1 mapnearly even +0%Sementes do Mal · 1 map
Dust2Pugdesonesto ban
40%50%
Pugdesonesto · 1 mapedge Sementes do Mal +10%Sementes do Mal · 0 maps
MiragePugdesonesto ban
50%40%
Pugdesonesto · 0 mapsedge Pugdesonesto +10%Sementes do Mal · 1 map
NukeSementes do Mal ban
40%50%
Pugdesonesto · 1 mapedge Sementes do Mal +10%Sementes do Mal · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPugdesonesto remove Mirage
2. BanSementes do Mal remove Nuke
3. PickPugdesonesto take Inferno
4. PickSementes do Mal take Cache
5. BanSementes do Mal remove Ancient
6. BanPugdesonesto remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (40% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Pugdesonesto 50%Sementes do Mal 50%
The model gave 50% on Pugdesonesto — the map was taken by Sementes do Mal.
Model check result
Model favoriteSementes do Mal · 56%
Series resultSementes do Mal 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1