CCT 2026 South America Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Grêmio#187 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageGrêmio ban
33%42%
Grêmio · 5 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +9%MEIA NOITE · 8 maps
Dust2possible decider
45%50%
Grêmio · 7 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +5%MEIA NOITE · 4 maps
InfernoGrêmio pick
58%57%
Grêmio · 8 mapsnearly even +1%MEIA NOITE · 3 maps
AncientGrêmio ban
33%30%
Grêmio · 2 mapsnearly even +3%MEIA NOITE · 6 maps
CacheMEIA NOITE ban
38%43%
Grêmio · 4 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +5%MEIA NOITE · 3 maps
DefaultMEIA NOITE pick
67%71%
Grêmio · 2 mapsnearly even -4%MEIA NOITE · 3 maps
NukeMEIA NOITE ban
43%40%
Grêmio · 3 mapsnearly even +3%MEIA NOITE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGrêmio remove Mirage
2. BanMEIA NOITE remove Nuke
3. PickGrêmio take Inferno
4. PickMEIA NOITE take Default
5. BanMEIA NOITE remove Cache
6. BanGrêmio remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (45% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
Grêmio 56%MEIA NOITE 44%
The model gave 56% on Grêmio — the map was taken by MEIA NOITE.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
Grêmio 51%MEIA NOITE 49%
The model gave 51% on Grêmio — the map was taken by Grêmio.
Dust2prediction correct14:16
Grêmio 45%MEIA NOITE 55%
The model gave 55% on MEIA NOITE — the map was taken by MEIA NOITE.
Model check result
Model favoriteGrêmio · 57%
Series resultMEIA NOITE 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3