?
arrow_backBack to match
Hero Esports Asian Champions League 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
SemperFi#67 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
THUNDER dOWNUNDER#128 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisSemperFi ban
50%70%
SemperFi · 0 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +20%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 6 maps
Dust2SemperFi ban
50%57%
SemperFi · 0 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +7%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 3 maps
InfernoSemperFi pick
50%60%
SemperFi · 2 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +10%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 map
AncientTHUNDER dOWNUNDER pick
40%60%
SemperFi · 1 mapedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +20%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 map
MirageTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
50%50%
SemperFi · 2 mapsnearly even +0%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%60%
SemperFi · 0 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +10%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 map
OverpassTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
50%40%
SemperFi · 0 mapsedge SemperFi +10%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSemperFi remove Anubis
2. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Mirage
3. PickSemperFi take Inferno
4. PickTHUNDER dOWNUNDER take Ancient
5. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Overpass
6. BanSemperFi remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct4:13
SemperFi 43%THUNDER dOWNUNDER 57%
The model gave 57% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by THUNDER dOWNUNDER.
Nukeprediction correct13:16
SemperFi 37%THUNDER dOWNUNDER 63%
The model gave 63% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by THUNDER dOWNUNDER.
Model check result
Model favoriteSemperFi · 58%
Series resultTHUNDER dOWNUNDER 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2