NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Johnny Speeds#73 in the world · win 1:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Walczaki#149 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeJohnny Speeds ban
50%72%
Johnny Speeds · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +22%Walczaki · 14 maps
Ancientpossible decider
57%69%
Johnny Speeds · 3 mapsedge Walczaki +12%Walczaki · 9 maps
AnubisWalczaki pick
29%75%
Johnny Speeds · 3 mapsedge Walczaki +46%Walczaki · 8 maps
MirageWalczaki ban
44%67%
Johnny Speeds · 5 mapsedge Walczaki +23%Walczaki · 5 maps
Dust2Walczaki ban
57%63%
Johnny Speeds · 3 mapsedge Walczaki +6%Walczaki · 4 maps
InfernoJohnny Speeds pick
67%56%
Johnny Speeds · 2 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +11%Walczaki · 5 maps
DefaultJohnny Speeds ban
50%57%
Johnny Speeds · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +7%Walczaki · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJohnny Speeds remove Nuke
2. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
3. PickJohnny Speeds take Inferno
4. PickWalczaki take Anubis
5. BanWalczaki remove Mirage
6. BanJohnny Speeds remove Default
DeciderAncient (57% / 69%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed1:0
Johnny Speeds 43%Walczaki 57%
The model gave 57% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Johnny Speeds.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 56%
Series resultJohnny Speeds 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1