NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Johnny Speeds#58 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientJohnny Speeds pick
50%40%
Johnny Speeds · 0 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +10%ex-RUBY · 1 map
Defaultex-RUBY ban
60%50%
Johnny Speeds · 1 mapedge Johnny Speeds +10%ex-RUBY · 0 maps
MirageJohnny Speeds ban
50%60%
Johnny Speeds · 0 mapsedge ex-RUBY +10%ex-RUBY · 1 map
Overpassex-RUBY pick
50%40%
Johnny Speeds · 0 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +10%ex-RUBY · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJohnny Speeds remove Mirage
2. Banex-RUBY remove Default
3. PickJohnny Speeds take Ancient
4. Pickex-RUBY take Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct7:13
Johnny Speeds 47%ex-RUBY 53%
The model gave 53% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Overpassprediction missed7:13
Johnny Speeds 63%ex-RUBY 37%
The model gave 63% on Johnny Speeds — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Model check result
Model favoriteJohnny Speeds · 66%
Series resultex-RUBY 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2