NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
AM#93 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SPARTA#102 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAM ban
50%50%
AM · 0 mapsnearly even +0%SPARTA · 2 maps
Dust2SPARTA pick
50%50%
AM · 0 mapsnearly even +0%SPARTA · 2 maps
InfernoAM pick
60%50%
AM · 1 mapedge AM +10%SPARTA · 0 maps
NukeSPARTA ban
60%50%
AM · 1 mapedge AM +10%SPARTA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAM remove Ancient
2. BanSPARTA remove Nuke
3. PickAM take Inferno
4. PickSPARTA take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct6:13
AM 47%SPARTA 53%
The model gave 53% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
AM 63%SPARTA 37%
The model gave 63% on AM — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Model check result
Model favoriteAM · 57%
Series resultSPARTA 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2