PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ#11 in the world · win 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aurora#6 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMOUZ ban
50%60%
MOUZ · 0 mapsedge Aurora +10%Aurora · 1 map
OverpassAurora ban
50%60%
MOUZ · 0 mapsedge Aurora +10%Aurora · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ remove Mirage
2. BanAurora remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
MOUZ 47%Aurora 53%
The model gave 53% on Aurora — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
MOUZ 53%Aurora 47%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora · 60%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2