NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
FAVBET#105 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Walczaki#149 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeWalczaki pick
50%72%
FAVBET · 4 mapsedge Walczaki +22%Walczaki · 14 maps
AncientWalczaki ban
50%69%
FAVBET · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +19%Walczaki · 9 maps
AnubisFAVBET ban
40%75%
FAVBET · 1 mapedge Walczaki +35%Walczaki · 8 maps
Defaultpossible decider
33%50%
FAVBET · 5 mapsedge Walczaki +17%Walczaki · 4 maps
InfernoFAVBET pick
67%56%
FAVBET · 2 mapsedge FAVBET +11%Walczaki · 5 maps
MirageFAVBET ban
50%67%
FAVBET · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +17%Walczaki · 5 maps
Dust2Walczaki ban
50%63%
FAVBET · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +13%Walczaki · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFAVBET remove Mirage
2. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
3. PickFAVBET take Inferno
4. PickWalczaki take Nuke
5. BanWalczaki remove Ancient
6. BanFAVBET remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (33% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
FAVBET 33%Walczaki 67%
The model gave 67% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 73%
Series resultWalczaki 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1