NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Betclic#65 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
AM#57 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAM ban
40%43%
Betclic · 1 mapnearly even -3%AM · 3 maps
InfernoAM pick
33%67%
Betclic · 2 mapsedge AM +34%AM · 2 maps
NukeBetclic pick
40%43%
Betclic · 1 mapnearly even -3%AM · 3 maps
Miragepossible decider
40%50%
Betclic · 1 mapedge AM +10%AM · 2 maps
OverpassBetclic ban
40%67%
Betclic · 1 mapedge AM +27%AM · 2 maps
AnubisAM ban
67%50%
Betclic · 2 mapsedge Betclic +17%AM · 0 maps
Dust2Betclic ban
50%33%
Betclic · 0 mapsedge Betclic +17%AM · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBetclic remove Overpass
2. BanAM remove Anubis
3. PickBetclic take Nuke
4. PickAM take Inferno
5. BanAM remove Ancient
6. BanBetclic remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct4:13
Betclic 18%AM 82%
The model gave 82% on AM — the map was taken by AM.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
Betclic 50%AM 50%
The model gave 50% on Betclic — the map was taken by AM.
Model check result
Model favoriteAM · 51%
Series resultAM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2