NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
SPARTA#96 in the world · win 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TNC#147 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageSPARTA ban
40%56%
SPARTA · 6 mapsedge TNC +16%TNC · 5 maps
AncientTNC pick
29%55%
SPARTA · 3 mapsedge TNC +26%TNC · 7 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%60%
SPARTA · 4 mapsedge TNC +10%TNC · 6 maps
Dust2SPARTA pick
55%33%
SPARTA · 7 mapsedge SPARTA +22%TNC · 2 maps
OverpassTNC ban
57%33%
SPARTA · 3 mapsedge SPARTA +24%TNC · 2 maps
AnubisSPARTA ban
50%63%
SPARTA · 0 mapsedge TNC +13%TNC · 4 maps
InfernoTNC ban
50%50%
SPARTA · 4 mapsnearly even +0%TNC · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSPARTA remove Anubis
2. BanTNC remove Overpass
3. PickSPARTA take Dust2
4. PickTNC take Ancient
5. BanTNC remove Inferno
6. BanSPARTA remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:3
SPARTA 23%TNC 77%
The model gave 77% on TNC — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Dust2prediction correct13:5
SPARTA 73%TNC 27%
The model gave 73% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Model check result
Model favoriteSPARTA · 58%
Series resultSPARTA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2