BetBoom Storm Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yawara#156 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Keyd Stars#155 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientKeyd Stars pick
47%50%
Yawara · 11 mapsnearly even -3%Keyd Stars · 16 maps
MirageYawara pick
61%53%
Yawara · 14 mapsedge Yawara +8%Keyd Stars · 13 maps
Dust2possible decider
57%50%
Yawara · 10 mapsedge Yawara +7%Keyd Stars · 10 maps
NukeYawara ban
50%36%
Yawara · 0 mapsedge Yawara +14%Keyd Stars · 10 maps
AnubisYawara ban
50%56%
Yawara · 4 mapsedge Keyd Stars +6%Keyd Stars · 5 maps
InfernoKeyd Stars ban
63%43%
Yawara · 4 mapsedge Yawara +20%Keyd Stars · 3 maps
CacheKeyd Stars ban
40%40%
Yawara · 1 mapnearly even +0%Keyd Stars · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanYawara remove Nuke
2. BanKeyd Stars remove Inferno
3. PickYawara take Mirage
4. PickKeyd Stars take Ancient
5. BanKeyd Stars remove Cache
6. BanYawara remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
Yawara 44%Keyd Stars 56%
The model gave 56% on Keyd Stars — the map was taken by Keyd Stars.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
Yawara 60%Keyd Stars 40%
The model gave 60% on Yawara — the map was taken by Yawara.
Mirageprediction missed4:13
Yawara 58%Keyd Stars 42%
The model gave 58% on Yawara — the map was taken by Keyd Stars.
Model check result
Model favoriteKeyd Stars · 69%
Series resultKeyd Stars 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3