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Hero Esports Asian Champions League 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alter Ego#120 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
THUNDER dOWNUNDER#128 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisTHUNDER dOWNUNDER pick
50%67%
Alter Ego · 0 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +17%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 5 maps
Dust2THUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
57%50%
Alter Ego · 3 mapsedge Alter Ego +7%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 2 maps
NukeAlter Ego pick
63%60%
Alter Ego · 4 mapsnearly even +3%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 map
Overpasspossible decider
50%40%
Alter Ego · 2 mapsedge Alter Ego +10%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 map
MirageTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
50%50%
Alter Ego · 2 mapsnearly even +0%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 maps
AncientAlter Ego ban
50%60%
Alter Ego · 0 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +10%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 map
DefaultAlter Ego ban
40%50%
Alter Ego · 1 mapedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +10%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAlter Ego remove Ancient
2. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Mirage
3. PickAlter Ego take Nuke
4. PickTHUNDER dOWNUNDER take Anubis
5. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Dust2
6. BanAlter Ego remove Default
DeciderOverpass (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct7:13
Alter Ego 31%THUNDER dOWNUNDER 69%
The model gave 69% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by THUNDER dOWNUNDER.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
Alter Ego 60%THUNDER dOWNUNDER 40%
The model gave 60% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by THUNDER dOWNUNDER.
Model check result
Model favoriteTHUNDER dOWNUNDER · 53%
Series resultTHUNDER dOWNUNDER 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2