Parken Challenger Championship Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#100 in the world · win 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Acend#62 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS ban
60%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 1 mapedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%Acend · 0 maps
Dust2Acend ban
60%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 1 mapedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%Acend · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Anubis
2. BanAcend remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
BASEMENT BOYS 63%Acend 37%
The model gave 63% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
BASEMENT BOYS 47%Acend 53%
The model gave 53% on Acend — the map was taken by Acend.
Ancientprediction correct16:14
BASEMENT BOYS 50%Acend 50%
The model gave 50% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 55%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3