Parken Challenger Championship Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · win 2:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Acend#125 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBASEMENT BOYS ban
57%57%
BASEMENT BOYS · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Acend · 3 maps
MirageAcend pick
67%57%
BASEMENT BOYS · 2 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%Acend · 3 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
33%60%
BASEMENT BOYS · 2 mapsedge Acend +27%Acend · 1 map
NukeAcend ban
57%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 3 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +7%Acend · 0 maps
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS pick
50%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Acend · 0 maps
Dust2Acend ban
60%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 1 mapedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%Acend · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
2. BanAcend remove Nuke
3. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Anubis
4. PickAcend take Mirage
5. BanAcend remove Dust2
6. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
BASEMENT BOYS 63%Acend 37%
The model gave 63% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
BASEMENT BOYS 57%Acend 43%
The model gave 57% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by Acend.
Ancientprediction correct16:14
BASEMENT BOYS 50%Acend 50%
The model gave 50% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcend · 56%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3