NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Betclic#65 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Johnny Speeds#73 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientJohnny Speeds pick
40%57%
Betclic · 1 mapedge Johnny Speeds +17%Johnny Speeds · 3 maps
MirageJohnny Speeds ban
50%38%
Betclic · 0 mapsedge Betclic +12%Johnny Speeds · 4 maps
AnubisBetclic pick
60%33%
Betclic · 1 mapedge Betclic +27%Johnny Speeds · 2 maps
Dust2Betclic ban
50%57%
Betclic · 0 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +7%Johnny Speeds · 3 maps
InfernoBetclic ban
40%60%
Betclic · 1 mapedge Johnny Speeds +20%Johnny Speeds · 1 map
Overpasspossible decider
40%60%
Betclic · 1 mapedge Johnny Speeds +20%Johnny Speeds · 1 map
NukeJohnny Speeds ban
40%50%
Betclic · 1 mapedge Johnny Speeds +10%Johnny Speeds · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBetclic remove Dust2
2. BanJohnny Speeds remove Nuke
3. PickBetclic take Anubis
4. PickJohnny Speeds take Ancient
5. BanJohnny Speeds remove Mirage
6. BanBetclic remove Inferno
DeciderOverpass (40% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct14:16
Betclic 28%Johnny Speeds 72%
The model gave 72% on Johnny Speeds — the map was taken by Johnny Speeds.
Anubisprediction correct13:5
Betclic 77%Johnny Speeds 23%
The model gave 77% on Betclic — the map was taken by Betclic.
Mirageprediction missed5:13
Betclic 63%Johnny Speeds 37%
The model gave 63% on Betclic — the map was taken by Johnny Speeds.
Model check result
Model favoriteJohnny Speeds · 50%
Series resultJohnny Speeds 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3