PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
K27#44 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
magic#18 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemagic pick
50%63%
K27 · 0 mapsedge magic +13%magic · 4 maps
Ancientmagic ban
33%40%
K27 · 2 mapsedge magic +7%magic · 1 map
Dust2K27 ban
40%50%
K27 · 1 mapedge magic +10%magic · 2 maps
InfernoK27 ban
50%50%
K27 · 0 mapsnearly even +0%magic · 2 maps
OverpassK27 pick
60%60%
K27 · 1 mapnearly even +0%magic · 1 map
Nukemagic ban
40%50%
K27 · 1 mapedge magic +10%magic · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanK27 remove Inferno
2. Banmagic remove Nuke
3. PickK27 take Overpass
4. Pickmagic take Mirage
5. Banmagic remove Ancient
6. BanK27 remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct9:13
K27 35%magic 65%
The model gave 65% on magic — the map was taken by magic.
Overpassprediction missed19:22
K27 53%magic 47%
The model gave 53% on K27 — the map was taken by magic.
Model check result
Model favoritemagic · 55%
Series resultmagic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2